Everyday Killings in the nation Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The typical figure of per-day murders per month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative data. But, security specialists have advised that murder figures might not point to better countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the least amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts urged caution that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it might obscure days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.