A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."