Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.